Oscar winners predicted

In theaters Friday: Because I Said So and The Messengers.

New on DVD: Catch a Fire, Farce of the Penquins, Flyboys, Open Season and Viva Pedro: The Almodovar Collection.

Celebrity birthday: Christian Bale makes 33 today. Many happy returns, Batman! Props to you for, as you put it at the MTV Movie Awards, “bringing dignity back to Batman,” and for banishing the “bloody nipples on the suit.” You were also in one of my favorite movies last year, The Prestige, and play “part of” Bob Dylan in the upcoming I’m Not There. Bale, you sir, are on fire.

To see a photo of Cate Blanchett as a Don’t Look Back-era Dylan in I’m Not There, click here. I guess director Todd Haynes figures one actor cannot possibly encapsulate the complexities of a guy like Bob Dylan, so why not try it with seven.

And good news for the legions of fans that thought Katie Holmes was the only thing wrong with Batman Begins. Mrs. Cruise’s role as Assistant D.A. Rachel Dawes will be recast in the sequel, The Dark Knight. Rumor has it the character gets killed off early in the movie anyway. Joining Christian Bale, Michael Caine and Gary Oldman who return to their roles, is Heath Ledger as the Joker.

Okay, last week I said I would throw down the gauntlet and post my Oscar predictions. Here we go. Below are all the nominees in the major categories with my picks in all caps:

BEST PICTURE

BABEL

The Departed

Letters from Iwo Jima

Little Miss Sunshine

The Queen

I can’t remember the last time there was so much parity in the Best Picture category. But the directors of The Queen and Little Miss Sunshine weren’t even nominated, so they won’t win. The Departed is a great film, but its not Scorcese’s best, and that might nag voters. Oscar is hooked on solid multi-threaded stories like Crash, so I see Babel towering above the other nominees, just as it did at this year’s Globes.

BEST DIRECTOR

Babel, Alejandro González Ińárritu

THE DEPARTED, MARTIN SCORCESE

Letters from Iwo Jima, Clint Eastwood

The Queen, Stephen Frears

United 93, Paul Greengrass

Eastwood is always the bully of this set but by now the Academy must see the WWII epic as a played out genre. Props to Paul Greengrass for pulling off United 93, and to Inarritu’s Babel—which should win Best Picture—but I don’t think the Academy wants to have to give Scorcese one of those embarrassing “lifetime achievement awards” as a “sorry we never voted for you before, man.” The Departed was awesome, so it’s Marty by a nose.

BEST ACTRESS

Penélope Cruz in Volver

Judi Dench in Notes on a Scandal

Helen Mirren in The Queen

Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada

KATE WINSLET in LITTLE CHILDREN

Too many people don’t take Penelope Cruz seriously, and Dench, Mirren and Streep were excellent, but the last seven winners in this category have all been under 40, which these ladies haven’t been since the 1980s…For Dench, make that the ‘70s. No, Oscar likes ‘em young these days, so Kate Winslet’s turn in Little Children will win it.

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio in Blood Diamond

Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson

Peter O’Toole in Venus

Will Smith in The Pursuit of Happyness

FOREST WHITACKER in THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

Leo was solid as a rock in Blood Diamond and The Departed. Too bad he was nominated for the former, because it’s going to cost him an Academy Award. Forest Whitaker, who won a Golden Globe for The Last King of Scotland, will have a new friend named Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Adriana Barraza in Babel

Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal

Abigail Breslin in Little Miss Sunshine

Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls

RINKO KIKUCHI in BABEL

Wouldn’t it be great if Jennifer Hudson won this, just to stick it to Beyonce? The former American Idol singer is all the rage for her show-stopping performance in Dreamgirls. She’s a 26-year-old with plenty of potential, but so is Rinko Kikuchi who showed more genuine emotion in Babel than heavyweights Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett, and she did it playing a deaf mute. Kikuchi for the gold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

ALAN ARKIN in LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE

Jackie Earle Haley in Little Children

Djimon Hounsou in Blood Diamond

Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls

Mark Wahlberg in The Departed

There’s no clear front-runner here, so I’ll go with age over beauty and say the Academy will hand an Oscar to the masterful Alan Arkin, and in so doing, give a nod to Little Miss Sunshine which just might be shut out on the rest of it’s nominations.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

BABEL, written by GUILLERMO ARRIAGA

Letters from Iwo Jima, screenplay by Iris Yamashita /story by Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis

Little Miss Sunshine, written by Michael Arndt

Pan’s Labyrinth, written by Guillermo del Toro

The Queen, written by Peter Morgan

As much as I’d like to see Arndt win for Little Miss Sunshine, it’s his first movie and the Academy will probably make him work a little harder (and longer) to earn a statue. Critical favorite Arriaga will take it home for the night’s big winner, Babel.

There you have it. What do you think of these predictions? Who do you think will win? Leave comments below with your own Oscar picks.

I finally saw Pan’s Labyrinth last night. This is a story that is, at times beautiful, and at times dark and disturbing. It’s a fairytale—with quite literally, fairies and a fawn and other mystical creatures—told from the perspective of a young girl, Ofelia, who must complete three tasks before she can enter a paradise where she will be crowned a princess and reunited with her real father. It’s a story of temptation, loyalty, sacrifice and redemption, fascism and freedom, and it is very difficult to find a weak part of the film. From the score of sympathetic strings to the performances to the sound design which made the story visceral with every croak of a wood floorboard, every uneasy stretch of leather gloves and boots, every aggressive thrump of an umbrella being opened.

Set in the midst of WWII Spain, a country that was undergoing its own civil war at the time, Pan’s Labyrinth tells two stories at once, but tells both with precision and a flare for the surreal. Ofelia’s quest is intertwined with the battle between her stepfather, a sadistic army captain, and rebel Spanish forces striking at his compound from the woods. The stories complement each other well with parallels and allegories to be drawn and dots to be connected. The best thing about the film, though, was the end. Writer/director Guillermo del Toro really earned the ending that is on the screen, and that cannot be said about many modern films. The only downside to Pan’s Labyrinth is that if you don’t know Spanish, you’ll spend too much time reading subtitles like me and miss some of the visual details of this gorgeous film.

Pan’s Labyrinth is still playing at the old Rave theater off O’Neal Lane. It’s probably the best movie showing in town right now, just ahead of Children of Men and Letters from Iwo Jima. Also on the indie radar is the movie that earned Penelope Cruz an Oscar nomination, Volver, which is screening at the Seigen Village 10 theater.

Word is that Nick Cannon will soon be “Wild ‘N Out” in an upcoming biopic of tennis legend Arthur Ashe. Cannon definitely looks like a young Ashe, but carrying a dramatic film is going to be a tad more difficult than telling “Yo Mama” jokes with this guy. I’m not saying it will be disastrous just yet, but I am dubious.

Finally, here is the first peek at the latest Stephen King short story-turned-movie thriller 1408. Okay, so at first I thought this was some kind of redux of The Shining. It’s got a creepy little kid. It takes place in an ornate hotel with a haunted room and an African-American manager, and a protagonist that is slowly losing his marbles. But the more I watch the trailer, the more it draws me in. 1408 stars John Cusack and opens July 13.