Gravity always wins – The Movie Filter’s 2014 Oscar Predictions
In theaters Friday: Pompeii, Three Days to Kill
New on Blu-ray: Fantastic Mr. Fox (Criterion Collection)
While new seasons of House of Cards and The Americans keep home viewers entertained this week, we are in the final stretch of awards season with the Super Bowl of movie honors dropping in less than two weeks. Featuring host Ellen DeGeneres, the 86th Academy Awards ceremony airs Sunday, March 2 at 6 p.m. CST on ABC.
There is a lot of parity in this year’s field—once you move beyond the two obvious frontrunners, that is—so upsets are difficult to predict, but below you’ll find my selections. Who I think will win is listed in bold, who I think should win (if this differs from the former) is shown in italics, and finally, marked with an asterisk, a dark horse who just might sneak up and steal the golden guy.
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street*
Alfonso Cuaron’s Earth-orbit thriller is a powerhouse combination of narrative storytelling and visual spectacle unlike anything Hollywood has produced in many years. With a $226 million box office take and 10 Oscar nominations, it is clearly a favorite among the industry and audiences alike. The only way Gravity loses is if Martin Scorsese’s wild The Wolf of Wall Street makes a late run among voters and wins for the sheer bombastic ambition it displays for three hours straight. If DiCaprio takes home his first Oscar for Wolf, then look out, we may have a major upset on our hands.
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street*
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
It’s been an incredible year for McConaughey, and what does Hollywood love better than a comeback? An actor disappearing into a role that sees him face to face with death, which he did when playing the drug addicted AIDs patient in Dallas Buyers Club. DiCaprio and Ejifor were both brilliant this year, but they are younger and will have more shots at this. It’s McConaughey’s year—all right, all right, all right!
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena*
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
This one is Sandy’s to lose. Bullock found ways to make the inhuman human, to make the supremely unrelatable strike a mighty cord, to make a fantastic journey out of not only traversing the outer orbit of Earth’s pull to safety but the farthest reaches of despair to a place of hope. Dench is always a sight to behold on screen and given her recent retirement she’s the only contender close to knocking Bullock out.
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave*
Jonah Hill, Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Fassbender was superb in all of his corrosive villainy, yes, but Leto did something the acclaimed Irish actor did not. He surprised people. That’s a rare thing and it is often rewarded.
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle*
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Save for one scene—the “Live and Let Die” karaoke bit—where she slightly overacted, Jennifer Lawrence was amazing in American Hustle. The chemistry of the entire ensemble is on point, and yet I found myself always wanting Lawrence to pop back into frame. That said, the Academy does love newcomers, especially in the Support Actor and Actress categories, and Lawrence recently won for Silver Linings Playbook. The fact is, it’s hard to argue against the tragic brilliance and heartbreaking beauty of Lupita Nyong’o’s performance in 12 Years a Slave. She wasn’t acting, she was simply being. And for that she’ll win the statue.
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street*
Here’s the deal, Steve McQueen is an auteur of the first order, and his career is one I am keeping an eye on with more enthusiasm than any other director nominated this year. But, and this is a big but, as powerful as 12 Years a Slave is, in terms of McQueen’s visual style and his personal stamp, I feel like he was not as present in this film as he was with his earlier work. Perhaps he respected the source material too much? Cuaron on the other hand has crafted a resonant film that I just don’t believe any other director could make. His DNA is all over it, and to elicit such an engaging performance from Sandra Bullock, who completely carries the movie start to finish, is a stroke of genius.
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners*
Master lenser Roger Deakins has outdone himself with his work on the crime thriller Prisoners, helping to elevate this otherwise good, though run-of-the-film mystery film, into a must-watch film. Prisoners is one of my favorites from 2013, and I’m really pulling for it here, even though Gravity‘s visuals were NASA real and an emotionally stunning experience to behold in 3D.
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave*
Best Editing often leans toward films with large-scale set-pieces, visual effects and action-filled scenes. That gives Gravity the edge, of course, but with multiple narratives, narrators and flashbacks, the well-paced American Hustle, which balanced lots of character-rich scenes with a nice build-up in its second half, really deserves this honor.
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips*
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Adapted by John Ridley from former slave Solomon Northup’s own memoir penned in 1855 and turned into a rousing and emotionally draining epic of a man fighting the entire world to return to his family? Come on. 12 Years a Slave has this one for sure. Mail Ridley the trophy now.
American Hustle*
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
Often given to an audience favorite among the Best Picture also-rans, this category should be owned by writer-director Spike Jonze who delivered an intensely personal, unique and thought-provoking drama filled with clever social commentary and first-rate performances with Her. If the Academy isn’t feeling a downer this year, look for the hilarious and ultra entertaining script for American Hustle to walk away with this Oscar, because as much as it was designed to win Best Picture, it really doesn’t stand a chance.
