A scrip for success

You want an analysis of the 2009 LSU football season?

Seems simple enough.

“It’s pretty easy,” opines Shreveport resident and LSU aficionado Tim Brando, the studio host for CBS football. “They need to make sure they don’t lose games at the quarterback position.”

Louisiana football draft expert Mike Detillier didn’t mince words when looking back at why LSU finished 8-5 in 2008, 7-5 in the regular season. “It showed the importance of the quarterback position,” Detillier says. “Problems there have a trickle-down effect on your football club.”

LSU had problems, for sure. And Detillier pointed to Ole Miss, where the surprising Rebels are expected to be the Southeastern Conference frontrunner this year, largely because of a star QB: “All of a sudden they got Jevan Snead and they became one hell of a football team with him.”

What LSU has is sophomore Jordan Jefferson, a speedster with a gun of an arm from Destrehan High School whom the Tigers hope is the real deal and not a one-game wonder.

To wit: Jefferson took the job from Jarrett Lee, probably the most snake-bitten QB in history. Lee, who started eight games and played in 11, tossed for 14 touchdowns, impressive enough. But he was intercepted a whopping 16 times, all seemingly at critical junctures, and saw an incredible—no, unbelievable; no, shocking—seven picks returned for TDs against LSU.

Jefferson, who led LSU’s Chick-fil-A Bowl victory over Georgia Tech, completed 16 of 25 passes for 142 yards and a TD and was named the offensive MVP. What’s more, he was only intercepted once in his 73 attempts in 2008 and—whew!—the pick was not returned for a score.

Of course, you could reason that LSU never should have been in a tenuous quarterback situation, but the best-laid plans can’t account for bad kids. Such was the case with Ryan Perrilloux, whom coach Les Miles booted off the team after just too many indiscretions, legal, academic and otherwise. The heir apparent after LSU won the 2007 national championship was long gone, plying his trade at Jacksonville State in Alabama. Which left the job to Lee and Andrew Hatch, who got hurt and has since transferred back to Harvard University.

“It will be forever known as the year that LSU didn’t have its quarterback,” says Gary Danielson, the CBS analyst who was quite a quarterback himself for Purdue, the Detroit Lions and the Cleveland Browns. “It was the year they should have had their guy but didn’t.”

Accordingly, says Danielson—who has been on hand for quite a few of LSU’s key games the past few years—trying to fill the void “distorted everything they did as a football team.”

AilmentLacking the kind of dominance established by former defensive coordinator Bo Pelini, who is now the head coach at Nebraska.

PrescriptionJohn Chavis, first-year defensive coordinator, should be an improvement over last year’s co-coordinator system.

He lists the ways. “They tried to protect the quarterback, they tried to boost their quarterback up, they tried to change because of their quarterback, they tried to hide their quarterback, they didn’t know if they should change quarterbacks.”

So Lee, who returns and is competing for the job again, had to play ahead of schedule. Jefferson wasn’t ready early, the coaches determined.

And so Lee, a Texas high school star from whom many still expect great things, struggled to settle into the college game. Opponents ran back interception after interception, and the defending national champs hung on for their lives until the coaches finally put Jefferson in.

Another problem last year: So many of LSU’s best players were young and, unlike the year before, the senior class wasn’t up to the task at hand.

“It was disappointing for a lot of the seniors, with the exception of Tyson [Jackson, the defensive end taken third overall by Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL Draft]s,” Detillier says. “But again, I do think there was that trickle-down from the quarterback situation.”

Dennis Dodd of CBS Sportsline.com, a keen observer of LSU the past decade, says the hiring of John Chavis as defensive coordinator is no small thing. After LSU won the 2007 national championship, defensive coordinator Bo Pelini left to become head coach at Nebraska. Rather than replacing him, Miles chose let assistants Doug Mallory and Bradley Dale Peveto to share duties of running the defense, a defense that gave up far more yards and points than it did under Pelini.

“If the defense is 20 percent better, that will be a relief,” Dodd says.

But it comes back to QB for Dodd, who pointed out that freshman Russell Shepard might get in the mix: “I know LSU has won two national championships without a difference-making quarterback, but trying for a hat trick at that position is pressing your luck. Sorry, Tigers, I don’t want to hear about the Welcome Matts-—Flynn and Mauck,” Dodd jokes. “Jordan Jefferson had better come through; Russell Shepard might come through (if he plays quarterback at all) and Jarrett Lee … guh!”

Brando points out that Jefferson need not be a star for LSU to be successful.

“You don’t necessarily need Jordan Jefferson to go out and win games, but you need him not to lose games,” Brando says.

AilmentA lack of experience (and, presumably, confidence) at quarterback. Also, moving on and forgetting Jarrett Lee’s interceptions-for-touchdowns debacle.

PrescriptionNourish Jordan Jefferson’s confidence by carefully building on his season-ending success last year.

All that being said, last year was, in most minds, an abomination.

The conventional thought was that LSU would finish 9-3 or 10-2 in the regular season. You figured the Tigers would fall at Florida, which went on to win it all, and probably at Auburn, where they ultimately rallied for a stirring victory. But Auburn, it turned out, was really weak. LSU lost at home to Georgia, which wasn’t a shock, but losing at home to Alabama and former coach Nick Saban—in overtime, no less—was the most painful of defeats.

Pain is relative, LSU found out, because Alabama was unbeaten at the time. Ending the regular season with losses to Arkansas and Ole Miss left everyone scratching their heads, from the most diehard of LSU fans to the casual distant observer. The mighty had fallen in a big way in a season where anything that could go wrong did.

What’s more, there was mounting criticism of Miles for his unwise decision not to replace Pelini with another defensive coordinator.

“What happened a year ago was an aberration, because I don’t think that was an 8-5 team,” Brando says. “But I don’t think this team suddenly goes back to being a 13-1 or 12-2 team. I think they’re more of a 10-3 kind of team—9-3 with a bowl win.”

AilmentSome key impact players have graduated and/or won’t be returning, including Ricky Jean-Francois, Demetrius Byrd, Colt David and Tyson Jackson.

PrescriptionSome players will have to emerge as leaders, including running back Charles Scott, wide receiver Brandon LaFell, defensive lineman Rahim Alem and tight end Richard Dickson.

Many will argue that this odd-year schedule will again favor the Tigers. After all, the Tigers won their national titles in 2003 and 2007, and again this year, both Florida and Auburn travel to Baton Rouge. But the road won’t be easy: LSU goes to Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss. Which pretty much sums up the SEC week-in and week-out.

Calling ’em like he sees ’em

A year ago, 225’s Lee Feinswog picked the Tigers to finish 8-4. He heard his share of criticism for such a prediction just a season after LSU won it all.

“But not even I thought they could fall to 7-5,” Feinswog says. “Things were so bad against Ole Miss and Arkansas it was tough to watch.”

This year?

“I see them at 8-4 again. That’s the dividing line, if you will. A little luck and LSU goes 9-3. But if last year wasn’t a fluke and the beginning of a downward spiral, the schedule is tough enough to see another 7-5.”

225 also recently asked Les Miles for his thoughts about 2009.

“I’m excited about it. I look forward to it. And I think our football team is looking forward to preparing this summer to be more competitive, more capable and to achieve more next fall.”

“They need to re-establish themselves as an aggressive, apply-the-pressure defense, which I think John Chavis is all about,” Brando says. “The problem is you’re going against some really good offenses … and with a new coordinator there’s going to be some growing pains on defense. I think it will improve, but it won’t be immediately dominating.”

Last year, LSU lacked experienced talent. If my team has more high NFL draft picks than your team, my team is probably going to beat your team. So, if you make the argument that LSU’s status in last year’s NFL Draft was indicative of a down year, then according to Detillier, things are looking up.

“You have two first-round picks—[wide receiver] Brandon LaFell and [left offensive tackle] Ciron Black,” Detillier says. “This is a really good class.”

Other Tigers whom pro teams will covet next May include running back Charles Scott, defensive lineman Rahim Alem and linebacker Perry Riley. Detillier figures LSU will have five picks in the first 100 players drafted. Other Tigers he expects to be drafted are linebacker Harry Coleman, offensive lineman Lyle Hitt, tight end Richard Dickson, and linebacker Jason Cutrera.

“And they’ve got a quarterback,” Detillier adds.

We know what that means.

“They’ve got the guy,” Detiller says. “That, I’ve got no doubt of.”

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