It’s hurricane season

In January, the Weather Research Center released its 2009 Hurricane Season forecast, and the predictions should get Baton Rouge’s attention. Using hurricane activity from 1997, 1987, 1977, 1965 and further back—current weather data most closely matches results from those years—the center estimates a 70% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Alabama. The center predicts at least seven named storms in all this season, with four intensifying into hurricanes.

“All of us need to recognize conditions are ripe for a busy season,” says Dr. Ivor van Heerden, who was ousted recently as director of the LSU Hurricane Center shortly after speaking with 225. “We ought to be on guard.”

Van Heerden’s firing triggered a public protest by those who felt the hurricane expert was axed for criticizing work done by the Army Corps of Engineers, a group LSU would need to work with in order to earn valuable federal dollars for coastal and wetlands research. Others say van Heerden simply ruffled too many university feathers by commenting publicly on something outside of geology, his area of expertise. But ironically, it was the coastal erosion van Heerden has so closely studied that fueled Hurricane Gustav last fall.

Baton Rouge got a Labor Day surprise with that storm, and van Heerden says most residents don’t realize Gustav nearly caused the Industrial Canal in New Orleans to fail. The Army Corps of Engineers made emergency repairs on the canal this spring.

According to van Heerden, Gustav offered just a small taste of the flooding that could occur if a Category 4 storm passed just to the west of Baton Rouge.

“We’d have the Amite and Comite Basin flooded along with Livingston Parish and into East Baton Rouge along the Burbank subdivisions,” van Heerden says. “So far Baton Rouge has been fairly lucky, but it could be much worse.”

2009’s Atlantic hurricane names

Ana

Bill

Claudette

Danny

Erika

Fred

Grace

Henri

Ida

Joaquin

Kate

Larry

Mindy

Nicholas

Odette

Peter

Rose

Sam

Teresa

Victor

Wanda

Though out at the LSU Hurricane Center, van Heerden will remain director of the LSU Center for the Study of Public Health Impacts of Hurricanes until May 2010 when his position as a research professor at LSU will be terminated. School officials are not commenting on the decision.

But what many Baton Rougeans are still talking about is the massive power outages caused by Gustav. More than 1 million homes in the state lost electricity. Some went powerless for two weeks, spawning a massive run on generators. With the region sold out, intrepid Baton Rougeans drove to Houston to find them.

The state spent an estimated $11.9 million for emergency generators during the aftermath, plus $50 million for debris removal on its way to racking up $383.9 million in Gustav-related expenditures.

In February the Public Service Commission released its study estimating the tab would run upwards of $70 billion to bury the state’s power lines. That hefty cost would be passed on to consumers in the form of quadrupled energy bills. Translation: Homeowners need to spend this summer trimming limbs near their homes and their power lines as best they can.

“Don’t think you have to cut down all your trees, though, because they offer a good deal of protection,” van Heerden says. “The main thing is to clear your yard of debris and trim branches that could break windows.”

Name game

How do hurricanes get their names?

The myth that hurricanes are named after some guy’s old Aunt Katrina is not entirely true. The names of these natural disasters are actually named and controlled by an organization under the United Nations.

The World Meteorological Organization undertakes the task of naming storms. According to the WMO Web site, “The agency established itself in 1950 for meteorology, operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences.” Since these waterborne natural disasters often overlap and span several countries and continents, WMO selects names for storms to avoid confusion. Louisiana is in Region IV, which includes North America, Central America and the Caribbean, as well as the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

There are 21 names on the list available to name a storm, with an international variety of origins from English to Portuguese. The names alternate from male to female, with a fresh list starting each season.

“There are six lists that rotate year after year, if you look back six or seven years, there will be repeats,” says Jay Grymes, local meteorologist for WAFB.

Only names of storms that make landfall and cause severe damage are ever retired. For example, this year’s list includes Danny (a Category 1 storm that struck southeast Louisiana in 1997) and Claudette (a Category 1 storm that struck southeast Texas in 2003).

“Beginning in the mid-1990s, there has been an up-tick of retired names since storms have been making landfall more often,” says Grymes. There will never be another Andrew, Katrina or Rita. Before the WMO retires a name, its members meet and come up with a replacement.

WMO must have graver concerns than creativity: The replacements for Katrina and Rita are Katia and Rina, respectively. Prospective parents may want to check out ?wmo.int to avoid any potential naming disasters. For quick reference, potential parents, Beulah was retired in 1967. You can thank us later.—MARY HELEN CRUMPLER