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Head Coach Les Miles will be graded not only on LSU’s win-loss record, but how they achieve it.

All too often sports seasons become like movies or plays in which the plot basically stays the same but the actors are replaced.

Welcome to what is year three of LSU’s post-national championship annual drama.

Tough schedule?

Check.

Grumbling fan base?

Check.

Great hopes but low expectations at quarterback?

Check, check and double-check.

And here we are, same as 2008, same as 2009 and, LSU fans hope, not more of the same in 2010.

So, with a program and its leadership at a crossroads, a brief recap:

In 2007, LSU tightropes the fine line between winning and losing, catching every break all season long—both on the field and off—to win the Bowl Championship Series national title. Celebrations and bedlam erupt as the Tigers finish No. 1 in the Associated Press Poll for the first time since 1958. (LSU won the BCS title in 2003-04, but USC earned the AP top spot.)

But in this what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sports world in which we live, in 2008 the whimsical football gods take back all those chips, and when push comes to shove—or penalty flag and interception—everything goes against LSU. The Tigers go 7-5, salvaging things somewhat with a convincing bowl victory. Unforgettable were the struggles at quarterback, most notably from Jarrett Lee, who was cast into the fire to throw 16 interceptions, a whopping seven returned for touchdowns.

Last season, with Lee firmly planted on the bench, sophomore Jordan Jefferson took the helm. By year’s end, Jefferson left fans with only slightly more confidence than Lee. The Tigers finished the regular season 9-3—more, much more, on that later—and ended with a disappointing 19-17 defeat to Penn State in a game played on a field so torn up, muddy and soggy it was an insult to the sport.

Which brings us to the crossroads.

“I think it’s a pretty crucial year for Les Miles after slipping back a bit the past couple of years,” says Stewart Mandel, national college football writer for SI.com. “I think they have every chance to contend in that division. I’m not worried about their division. It’s pretty much the same issue that’s hovered over them the past two years, which is—will Jordan Jefferson play at a level that you need to be successful in the SEC?”

This leaves LSU football observers to ask a few unanswerable questions of their own.

Like, if LSU was 9-3 in the regular season and one loss was by nine points to a team that finished unbeaten (Alabama) and another was by 10 points to a team that lost only once, to Alabama (Florida), how bad could things have been?

But you can also ask about an LSU team that most certainly could (some would say should) have lost to Mississippi State, Georgia and Arkansas, wondering—were the Tigers really that close to being 6-6?

Such is the fine line that may once again determine not only the fate of the 2010 LSU football team, but its coaching staff as well.

“I understand the situation,” LSU athletic director Joe Alleva says matter-of-factly. “Very clearly.”

Although Jordan Jefferson led the Tigers to a 9-4 record in 2009, he will have to show significant improvement to become a top SEC quarterback.

Fact: Since winning the national championship and capping his first three seasons with a stunning 34-6 record, head coach Les Miles is 8-8 in Southeastern Conference play—including losses the past two seasons to the aforementioned Alabama and Florida, the benchmarks of college football today. For that matter, the list is pretty exclusive: LSU won it all in 2003 and 2007; USC in 2004; Texas in 2005; Florida in 2006 and 2008; and Alabama last year.

But LSU also lost to Ole Miss the past two years, and the defeat in Oxford last season was the worst blow of all, as it oddly turned out. LSU scored with 3:32 left when Jefferson threw a TD pass to pull the Tigers to 25-23. They missed on a two-point try and then, as it turned out, a great play became the most ironic of the season. With the football gods again showing a dry sense of humor, LSU recovered its onside kick, giving them a chance to win the game on a field goal.

In the remaining time, LSU’s offense looked like something out of a grade-school recess pickup game. The coaches and Jefferson completely mismanaged the clock and the possession, and the Tigers lost.

Had LSU not recovered the onside kick, which is no small feat, it would have simply been a tough loss. Instead, because LSU got the chance to win the game, the madness of the situation became a rallying cry for a fan base that clearly was losing confidence in the coaches and team. And when a similar clock botching occurred in the bowl loss, well... Let’s just say 2010 looms larger than ever.

“We had a chance to beat Florida. We really did, but didn’t move the ball very well. We had a chance to beat Alabama. Obviously there were a few plays that made a big difference in that game, but just a few. And then on some of those other games, we didn’t play up to our ability,” Alleva said last spring.

“But that season’s passed. I’m looking forward to the next season.”

In that regard, first Miles made some major additions to his coaching staff, bringing highly regarded Billy Gonzales from Florida as wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator; Frank Wilson from Tennessee as running backs coach and recruiting coordinator; and local seasoned veteran Steve Ensminger as tight ends coach.

LSU fans have groused about LSU’s lackluster offense under coordinator Gary Crowton. New assistants hired in the off-season are expected to add potency.

All three hires, but especially Gonzales, are seen as a way to bolster an offense that appeared to have a disconnect last season between Miles and offensive coordinator Gary Crowton.

Then last February, LSU had a tremendous recruiting effort, and along the way Miles, has been saying all the right things—the past two seasons haven’t been good enough; Jefferson has matured and is ready to take a quantum leap; and he is confident LSU will be back in the hunt.

Not everyone believes the hype about Jefferson. As says Tim Brando of Shreveport, a longtime LSU observer and host of CBS Sports’ College Football Today, Jefferson is in need of better coaching.

“The sad part is (offensive coordinator) Gary Crowton—while he’s a mad scientist of X’s and O’s and film—is not a quarterbacks coach,” Brando says. “That kid is in desperate need of a quarterbacks coach and has been since the day Jimbo Fisher left.”

Fisher, of course, is now head coach at Florida State.

In the meantime, the Tigers play in the SEC Western Division, a group that includes the defending national champion in Alabama, Ole Miss, hard-charging Auburn, a much-improved Mississippi State and Arkansas, which some observers say is ready to break out.

LSU could be a top 20 team but fifth in the SEC West!

The 2010 season has its daunting challenges, not the least of which is a schedule not for the faint of heart. LSU opens against North Carolina in Atlanta in what will be a battle of two squads that both need a good start. And, as if the SEC slate isn’t brutal enough, LSU brings in West Virginia to spice things up at home in Tiger Stadium.

“Every year the schedule is tough, but next year our schedule is really, really tough,” Alleva admits.

The third-year AD praises Miles’ hires and offers that LSU’s offense will be greatly improved, starting with a line that struggled terribly last year.

And he hopes so more than most, because the financial implications are paramount for a guy who oversees an $85 million athletic budget.

Joseph Alleva

“Football pays all the bills,” Alleva says. “You’ve got to have a good football team. There’s no doubt. Our great fans have got to fill up Tiger Stadium and buy a hot dog and support the team. That’s how we are able to have an $85 million budget, because of our success in football.”

So when games happen like last Halloween, when LSU played Tulane in front of more fans disguised as empty seats than not, the implications were dire.

“The No. 1 negative is the fans are not there to support our kids, our football players,” Alleva says. “And they need the support.

“And No. 2, there’s the lost revenue of concessions.

“And there’s the loss of prestige, being on TV and there are no fans in the stands, which could have a negative impact on some 15-year-old kid watching the game on TV who may be a prospective student-athlete. It could hurt us in recruiting.”

Finally, there’s the real issue, the elephant in the room: Miles’ status as coach. Is he in charge of a program that stumbled and is on the way back, or one that is going downhill with no turning back?

Exactly what the line of demarcation is no one knows, but, simply put, Miles needs a good season to extend his tenure at LSU. But it’s not that simple, because he has a contract that, in essence, pays him all of his $3.8 million per year for at least four more years after next season—should LSU fire him.

Louisiana is cash-strapped as it is. Throw in the oil disaster, combine it with a terrible economy and the budget cuts and layoffs across the board at LSU and it’s pretty tough to think about buying out a coach for $15 million or so.

“I don’t base it all on numbers,” Alleva says, knowing that his evaluation of Miles will itself be evaluated on every level. “I base it on how you got to those numbers. It’s a whole body of work. You have to evaluate who got hurt, how you lost, how you won. It’s more than just winning and losing; it’s how you won and lost and what transpired to get there.

“Heaven forbid that we have a rash of injuries. You have to evaluate the whole program, not just 7-5, 8-4, 9-3. You have to evaluate everything.”

The pre-drama credits are about to roll …

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